The OECD says the global economy will see its strongest growth in seven years in 2018 thanks to a rebound in trade and investment, though it also warned today that a trade war could threaten the recovery.
In its March 2018 interim economic outlook which used the subtitle ‘Getting stronger, but tensions are rising’, the organisation updated its outlook for G20 economies and raised its global growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 to 3.9 percent – the highest since 2011, from previous forecasts of 3.6 percent for both years.
The raised forecast is partly due to expectations that U.S. tax cuts will boost the American economy.
Here were the key positive takeaways from the report:
– Growth is improving or steady in most G20 economies
– Trade and private investment are bouncing back
– New fiscal stimulus in the United States and Germany will further boost short-term growth
– Inflation (a concern for Central Banks) is set to rise slowly
– Consumer confidence, particularly in BRIICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China and South Africa) has risen sharply
The key negatives and risks were as follows:
– Income gains, particularly for median and low income households have barely improved over the last decade
– Public and private debt in G20 nations is very high, with China leading the way at over 200 percent of GDP
– The pace of structural reform is slow, in emerging market countries especially
– An escalation of trade tensions would be damaging for growth and jobs
Regardless, the overall picture is healthier. Acting OECD Chief Economist Alvaro Pereira said: “We think that the stronger economy is here to stay for the next couple years,” He added, “We are getting back to more normal circumstances than what we’ve seen in the last 10 years.”
This is good news for investors the world over, as a more robust global economy will create a better environment in which companies can grow and expand more easily, boosting corporate results and shareholder returns.
Patrick Jones 