Stock markets rise despite growing Syria tensions

Markets are still poised for the possibility of military conflict erupting in Syria between the US and her allies (Britain, France, Saudi Arabia and possibly Turkey) and Russia, with the backing of Iran and the Syrian regime. While NATO members are preparing a response to the alleged chemical weapons attacks in Ghouta, Trump’s Defense Secretary James Mattis warned any strike should be carefully planned to avoid a major conflict between the superpowers.

Even if a war is avoided, the events of the last 2 weeks (including US sanctions on Russian businesses and oligarchs) have severely damaged US/Russia relations. Reports say Russian lawmakers have drafted legislation which proposes to ban American imports including software and medicines, as well as stopping cooperation on atomic power and more.

The American sanctions put in place a week ago, caused the Russian RTS index to fall -11.4% on Monday, it’s biggest one-day decline since December 2014. The Russian Ruble also suffered a dramatic fall against both the Euro and Dollar as foreign investors pulled out of Ruble-denominated Russian government debt.

At the moment, peace reigns and stock markets are in positive territory. European indices are on track to make weekly gains despite geopolitical worries. The FTSEurofirst 300, which tracks the 300 largest companies ranked by market capitalisation in the FTSE Developed Europe Index, is up for the week despite geopolitical turbulence (see the chart below).

Keep in mind that in the long term, a US strike in Syria may not have too much of an impact on indices, and may only cause a short term bearish movement. It all depends on whether the situation deteriorates further. Right now NATO countries seem to be waiting on Trump’s administration to act, but what they will do is no clearer now than it was earlier in the week.



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