This week Britain is playing host to the leaders of The Commonwealth nations. As the event takes place, the UK will still hold the crown as the largest economy out of the 53 countries included in the lineup, but by the time of the next meeting in Malaysia in 2020, it’s almost guaranteed that India’s economy will have surpassed Britain’s in size. It will be a change that symbolises the tectonic shifts in the world economy, as Asia’s booming nations continue to challenge the economic dominance of the West.
Currently India stands at number 6 on the International Monetary Fund (IMF) world GDP rankings, with a GDP of over $2.26 trillion behind Britain’s $2.61 trillion, but bullish forecasts from both the World Bank (WB) and IMF suggest India will cruise comfortably into 5th place behind Germany in the next 2 years. The WB forecasts 7.3% growth this year for India’s booming economy, up from 6.7% last year, while IMF pegs it at a slightly more upbeat 7.4%. This will make India the world’s fastest growing economy in 2018, surpassing China.
But it’s not only India’s current shorter-term (1-2 year) growth prospects that should be cause for excitement, not least for investors in Indian equity markets. The longer-term equation looks equally lucrative. The Indian economy has plenty of room for future growth. Putting aside any external tailwinds from problems elsewhere in the world which could affect global trade and investment, India has the recipe for success including:
– A rising middle class which is spending and investing more.
– A young population (more than 65% below the age of 35) with more and more people entering the workforce, growing the pool of labor available for companies.
– A massive rural population that currently has low access to digital services and infrastructure, but with a government that is pushing to create a digital revolution in India, ecommerce companies like Amazon and Flipkart will be able to grow quickly as people who once never had access to internet start buying goods online.
– A stable government that has launched a flagship health insurance scheme to cover over 100 million families, while also pledging to invest large sums in the agricultural sector (the most important sector of the Indian economy accounting for 18% of India’s GDP which employs 50% of the nations workforce).
The IMF said today that India needs to address weaker aspects of its labour market and reform issues in its financial sector. With these issues solved, more jobs will be created and banks will feel more comfortable lending, both adding yet another stimulus to an already rapidly expanding economy.
Britain will now be looking to secure an even closer partnership with India, (which was referred to the ‘crown jewel’ of its empire in the colonial period), especially given the need it has to establish new trading relationships post-Brexit. It is likely that trade will be a key factor of discussion as representatives from both nations, and all other members of the Commonwealth community representing over a quarter of the world’s population, meet in London this week.
Patrick Jones 